Research
Although I’m transitioning away from academic writing, I’d be lying if I said that I plan never again to write a professional journal article. Sometimes I like to do so even if just for kicks, and I anyway think that there is sometimes value in exchanging ideas with specialists. But I do look forward to the day when more in my profession appreciate that economics, because of its complexity, is really a generalists’ game. My articles are organized by category, with the categories more or less ordered by greatest and most recent interest to me. If you take the time to explore this section, you will see that my thinking has evolved a fair bit over the years. To be more precise, it is all over the place. Unlike most academics, I lack the patience to spend more than a year or two researching in one particular area. Life is too short! You can download most article PDFs by clicking on the corresponding link.
Books
With the exception of my Brazil study published by Ashgate Press, these are textbooks that I use in my classes and that I co-author with other folks, most of them from the Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University.
Macroeconomics in Context, Fourth Edition. (2023) Routledge. [BUY]
A macroeconomics principles text that I co-author with Neva Goodwin, John Harris, Julie Nelson, Pratistha Rajkarnikar, and Brian Roach. Presents the macroeconomy in its social and environmental “contexts.”
Microeconomics in Context, Fifth Edition. (2023) Routledge. [BUY]
A microeconomics principles text that I co-author with Neva Goodwin, John Harris, Julie Nelson, Pratistha Rajkarnikar, and Brian Roach. Presents the microeconomy in its social and environmental “contexts.”
Principles of Economics in Context, Second Edition. (2019) Routledge. [BUY]
A textbook that combines the macro and micro principles in social and environmental context. Also co-authored with Neva Goodwin, John Harris, Julie Nelson, Pratistha Rajkarnikar, and Brian Roach.
Macroeconomics in Context, European Edition. (2017) Routledge. [BUY]
A variant on our Macroeconomics in Context textbook, with special attention on the European economy. Co-authored with Sebastian Dullien, Neva Goodwin, John Harris, Julie Nelson, Pratistha Rajkarnikar, and Brian Roach.
Welfare, Inequality, and Resource Depletion: A Reassessment of Brazilian Economic Growth, 1965-1998. (2003) Ashgate Press. [BUY]
An elaboration of my dissertation research on the Brazilian economy and ecology.
Climate Change
An area about which I’ve been thinking for decades but on which I only recently started writing. As existentially urgent as it is multidimensional in its policy solution. But properly addressing it requires coming to terms with what “science” is and what it is not.
Managing Climate Change: The Case for a Climate Security Fund (2020) [with Robert Goldberg] Journal of Managerial Issues 32(2): 195-214.
We argue that public money should be set aside annually starting today to fund future climate change policy. A sensitivity analysis around alternative economic and environmental assumptions leads us to conclude that in most cases such a policy would be prudent, irrespective of whether mitigation or adaptation is ultimately the chosen policy.
Orthodox Economics and the Science of Climate Change (2016) Monthly Review 68(1): 25-34.
I present a critique of how orthodox (or neoclassical) economics is employed to misinform and obfuscate on policy matters concerning climate change. I discuss three ways in which uncertainty is misleadingly addressed in social cost-benefit analysis, producing policy conclusions that are precise but dangerously misleading.
Uncertainty about Uncertainty: The Futility of Benefit-Cost Analysis for Climate Change Policy (2016) Real World Economics Review 77: 11-25.
I argue that undue fetishization of quantitative figures leads us to discount the moral dimensions of climate change in favor of the economic. In recommending against the use of social cost-benefit analysis, I discuss the ways in which predictive, valuational, and moral uncertainty are exploited to produce deceptive policy recommendations.
Financialization
This is a subject in which I have long had a general interest but into which I have only recently delved more. Worsening global commercial and financial imbalances are a clear sign that the movement of money has come to dominate mere economic activity in what many critics have described as a casino economy. Imprudently ignored by most researchers on sustainability.
A National Balance Sheet Approach to the Natural Rate of Interest (2023) [with Robert Goldberg] The Journal of Fixed Income 33(1): 106-119.
We present a new estimation method for the “natural” interest rate and estimate its value for the US economy from 1961 to 2020. Wow find that our rate has remained above the conventional r* for much of the past 25 years, suggesting that the Federal Reserve’s accommodative policy for the past two decades has been more aggressive than previously believed.
Explaining Stagnant Living Standards in a Generalized Asset Growth Context (2021) [with Robert Goldberg] Journal of Economic Issues 55(1): 142-161.
By analyzing the United States balance sheet for the past seven decades, we show that middle class living standards have been mostly stagnant for the past 40 years, despite rapidly increasing asset values. Inequality and a significant increase in debt — which continues to fuel a troublesome financialization trend — are the principal drivers.
Methodology
This area of study derives from my growing realization that quantitative analysis is quite limited in what it can tell us about economics (not a popular view, I know). The observation is influencing my thinking on climate change, sustainability, inequality, and even scientific inquiry as a whole.
On the Quantitative Bias in Economics (2015) [with G. Surie] Journal of Economic Issues 49(4): 1028-1044.
We make the case that a numbers fetish extends beyond economic theory and practice, indeed to society at large. We examine how orthodox economics is responsible for the manner in which our quantity bias causes and is a consequence of our policy obsession with GDP growth.
The Subjectivity Inherent in Objective Measures of Well-Being (2008) Journal of Happiness Studies 9(4): 475-487.
I contend that it is unproductive to pretend that social wellbeing improvements, or progress, can be in any way measured objectively. I discuss some of the philosophical and methodological obstacles to articulating a tangible, knowable “human purpose.”
Political ecology/inequality
Political ecology is the study of the diverse ecological impacts of economic activity on different social groups and classes. My work has sought to quantify such impacts, but I have grown increasingly skeptical of such efforts.
Environmental Damage and its Impacts on Inequality and Poverty: A Comparison of Brazil and Costa Rica (2007) Journal of Income Distribution 16(2): 68-82.
I revise a few common poverty and inequality measures to take into account resource depletion and distribution of environmental damage. I apply my method, which combines political philosophy and environmental valuation, to the historical cases of Brazil and Costa Rica.
Ecological Inequality in Assessing Well-Being: Some Applications (2006) Policy Sciences 38: 205-224.
I present an argument for sensitivity analysis in assessing social wellbeing when in the presence of uncertainty and policy subjectivity. In support of my argument I present disparate quantitative evidence for four countries, accounting for income inequality and resource depletion in each.
The Impact of Ecological Inequality on National Well-Being: The Case of Brazil, 1965-1998 (2005) International Journal of Political Economy 34(1): 75-93.
I quantify the distribution of ecological damage in Brazil from 1965 to 1998, as a means of measuring progress or wellbeing improvement. My findings are in stark contrast to what one would conclude from the GDP growth indicator.
Political Ecology: Global, Historical, and Economic Perspectives—An Introduction, International (2005) International Journal of Political Economy 34(1): 3-12.
As guest editor for the International Journal of Political Economy, here I present some introductory material for a symposium on political ecology containing articles by Joan Martinez-Alier, Tor Benjaminsen and Gunnvor Berge, Alain Lipietz, and myself.
El Impacto de la Mala Distribución Ecológica en Relación al Bienestar Nacional: El Caso de Brasil, 1965-1998 (2003) [In Spanish] Problemas del Desarrollo 34(134): 109-125.
I critically examine who are the winners and losers from the substantial Amazonian deforestation that occurred in Brazil from the 1960s to the 1990s (and continues unabated). My analysis represents a direct critique of GDP growth as a measure of progress.
Environmental Damage and the Mismeasure of Poverty and Inequality: Applications to Indonesia and the Philippines (2002) Asian Development Review 19(2): 90-103.
I revise a few common poverty and inequality measures to take into account resource depletion and distribution of environmental damage. I then use the approach to examine the historical cases of Indonesia and the Philippines.
Welfare Accounting And The Environment: Reassessing Brazilian Economic Growth,1965-1993 (2001) Development and Change 32(2): 205-229.
I conduct a case study on Brazil that modifies the GDP growth measure to account for income inequality and resource depletion. Based on it I perform scenario analysis to illustrate the effect of alternative policy assumptions.
Inequality, Resource Depletion, And Welfare Accounting: Applications to Indonesia and Costa Rica (1999) World Development 27(7): 1191-1202.
I develop an application that combines Robert Repetto’s green income accounting methodology with M. Ahluwalia’s and H. Chenery’s approach that disaggregates GDP growth to account for inequality. I examine my indicator by considering data from Indonesia and Costa Rica.
Power Inequality and the Environment
This stream originates in James Boyce’s (1994) piece in Ecological Economics, and employs international social and economic statistics to estimate the average impact of power inequality on environmental outcomes, especially compared to income or GDP per capita.
The Impact of Power Equality, Income, and the Environment on Human Health: Some Inter-Country Comparisons (2006) International Review of Applied Economics 20(1): 1-20.
Mine is an econometric analysis in which I use principal components to construct an index of power equality that I use to explain population health. I find that power equality overall is superior to income per capita in explaining health outcomes.
Income and Power Inequality as Determinants of Environmental and Health Outcomes: Some Findings (2005) Social Science Quarterly 86(S): 1354-1373.
I use a two-stage statistical model to evaluate the effect of power inequality on the environment, and the impact of the latter on population health. I find that some of the factors that are comprised by power inequality better explain environmental and health outcomes than per capita income.
Income, Inequality, and Pollution: A Reassessment of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (1998) [with J. Boyce] Ecological Economics 25(2):147-160.
Ours is an econometric study that challenges the one of the main implications of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, the notion that continued economic growth is beneficial for the environment. Controlling for a number of socioeconomic variables, we show that the positive impact of income on the environment disappears.
Sustainability
This is an area of vital importance, yet the term has become so misused and abused that for practical purposes it is almost devoid of meaning. Some of this problem, and its attendant controversies, I discuss in my papers.
An Econometric Analysis of Ecological Footprint and Ecological Deficit Determinants: Implications for Sustainability (2011) [with with S. Moskalev, J. Hazy, and A. Ashley] International Journal of Sustainable Society 3(3): 258-75.
We conduct a cross-country econometric analysis of determinants of ecological sustainability, utilizing ecological footprint data. Our main finding is that the extent of a country’s openness to external markets runs counter to the goal of sustainability.
Book review: D. Booth, Hooked on Growth: Economic Addictions and the Environment, Rowman and Littlefield Publishers (2006) Review of Social Economy 64(2): 267-270.
A critical review of Douglas Booth’s book, Hooked on Growth.
An Ecological Footprint Approach to External Debt Relief (2003) World Development 31(12): 2161-2171.
Using ecological footprint data, I estimate what I (following Martinez-Alier) call the “ecological debt” of a number of countries. I then use the ecological debt estimates to make a case for relief or outright forgiveness of external debt.
Global Structural Change and its De materialization Implications (2003) International Journal of Social Economics 30(6): 700-719.
I extrapolate from structural change data from an international panel data set to explore the likelihood of a long term sustainable global economy. I find that average efficiency gains would need to be unrealistically large to permit the global economy to continue growing in perpetuity.
Sustainability or Natural Capital ‘Disinvestment?’ A Retrospective on Brazilian Development, 1965-1993 (2000) Estudos Econômicos 30(3): 351-375.
I present a political economy critique of the so-called economic miracle that occurred in Brazil in the 1960s and 1970s. Perverse government incentives intensified inequality and degraded the Amazon rain forest. I illustrate how GDP growth as a policy indicator can lead us astray.
Development Projects and Resource Depletion (1998) Politica Internazionale 5 (Sept-Oct): 61-75.
Social Entrepreneurship
Related to the so-called “triple bottom line” of economic efficiency, environmental sustainability, and social responsibility. Who could be opposed? First, the laissez-faire proponents who believe that the latter two automatically follow from the first; and second, those (like me) who believe that capitalism is antithetical to sustainability and social progress.
Technology Leverage and a Sustainable Society: A Call for Technology Forecasting that Anticipates Innovation (2010) [with J. Hazy, S. Moskalev, and A. Ashley] International Journal of Society Systems Science 3(1-2): 5-20.
We use the concept of option value as a basis for precaution in overuse of natural resources in the present. Future increases in technology leverage enable societies in the future to derive much greater gains from today’s resources if preserved.
Mechanisms of Social Value Creation: A Dynamical Systems Perspective on Social Entrepreneurship and Innovation (2010) [with J. Hazy and S. Moskalev] International Journal of Society Systems Science2(2): 134-157.
Combining a systems perspective and traditional economic modeling, we make a case for how access to resources and information about their option value provide social value that could be measured quantitatively.
“Social Entrepreneurship, Social Value, and the Environmental ‘Big Push’: Some Remarks,” in, ed., J. Goldstein, J. Hazy, and J. Silberstang, Complexity Science and Social Entrepreneurship: Adding Social Value Through Systems Thinking. (2009) ISCE Publishing.
Environmental Big Push: I describe the U.S. economy as being stuck in a “low-level” stable equilibrium characterized by prolonged stagnation. I recommend an environmental “big push” to break out of the low-level equilibrium, following the development approach prescribed by Rosenstein-Rodan in the 1940s.
“Toward a Theory of Social Value Creation: Individual Agency and the Use of Information within Nested Dynamical Systems,” [with J. Hazy and S. Moskalev] in, ed., J. Goldstein, J. Hazy, and J. Silberstang, Complexity Science and Social Entrepreneurship: Adding Social Value Through Systems Thinking. (2009) ISCE Publishing.
We make an attempt at a general theory of social value creation utilizing complexity theory. We argue that it is possible to use discounted cash flow analysis to quantitatively measure the future social values.
Reconceptualizing Value Creation with Limited Resources (2008) [with J. Hazy and A. Ashley] Journal of Technology Management and Innovation 3(3): 45-54.
Here is the first instance in which we develop the notion of “technology leverage” as a way of describing the option value that could accrue to society from postponing the exploitation of natural resources.
The Co‑evolution of Technology and Entrepreneurship: Lessons for Development from India and Korea (2007) [with G. Surie] International Journal of Technoentrepreneurship 1(2): 183-206.
We develop a conceptual framework for understanding the way in which the co-evolution of technology and entrepreneurship contribute to economic development. We apply the framework to the cases of the Indian and South Korean steel industries.
Other
Los Costes Encubiertos del Cuidado de los Niños, (2010) [In Spanish] Psicopatología y Salud Mental en niños y adolecentes, 16: 85-89.
I argue that traditional cost-benefit analysis obscures the economic impact of child-care services. Being indirect, psychosocial costs stemming from the absence of parents from the lives of very young children are ignored it conventional analysis, leading to erroneous policy conclusions.
The Total Economic Value of Amazonian Deforestation, 1978-1993 (2000) Ecological Economics 33(2): 283-297.
I estimate the total economic value that was last as a consequence of the deforestation that occurred in the Brazilian Amazon from 1978 to 1993. Analyzing data from nine provinces from the Brazilian interior, I estimate the direct, indirect, option, and existence values accruing from the forest, finding a sizable economic loss during the period studied.
Book Review: M. Abramovitz, Under Attack, Fighting Back: Women and Welfare in the United States, Monthly Review Press (1998) Science and Society 62(2):306-308.
A review of Mimi Abramovitz’s Under Attack, Fighting Back (1996).