At the beginning of Kim Stanley Robinson’s The Ministry for the Future, ostensibly a novel about the near future, a deadly heat wave hits northern India. Everyone but Frank, one of the story’s protagonists, perishes. The tragedy then becomes a pretext for the seeding of the upper atmosphere with silver iodide and other chemicals to cool the planet. After 106 chapters (no typo), the story ends on a hopeful note.
I was thinking about the novel again after reading about the Acropolis, one of Greece’s most popular tourist destinations. Sustained temperatures in excess of 110 degrees Fahrenheit (44 Celsius) have compelled its closure. One wishes such torrid conditions were an anomaly; unfortunately, they are increasingly ubiquitous. Many of Greece’s European neighbors are also facing unprecedented heat, as is the southwestern U.S. Meanwhile, Asia is being ravaged by unusually high temperatures. Beijing and other Chinese cities now face an unhealthy cocktail of extreme heat and toxic smog. Worldwide, many more people than in the past are dying from exposure to extreme heat.
One wonders what if anything it will take to properly address the growing calamity. Why do policymakers not respond? While there are no quick fixes, there still seems much that we can do to avoid the worst. Unfortunately, as is often the case it is the wealthy who would need to bankroll most of the necessary interventions. In Robinson’s novel it is indeed the world’s central banks that band together to incentivize carbon mitigation across the planet. As nice as it sounds, the idea seems exceedingly optimistic.