It seems that everyone wants to know the future course of interest rates. For a variety of reasons, it is less predictable than in “normal” times. But a quick look at a few numbers places the recent history of Fed policies in stark relief, possibly presaging what is to come. Consider the following quantitative measure that we call the Fed Accommodation Index. In our view, it approximates the degree to which the Fed’s monetary policy has been “accommodative” over the …
On Progress and Anti-Elitism
May 31, 2021“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” (George Bernard Shaw) U.S. middle class living standards have been more or less stagnant over recent decades, and the same is true in most of the developed world. Inequality has both been a cause and consequence, as whatever economic growth experienced has disproportionately accrued to the social elite. But who exactly are …
Big Pharma Lacks Any Decency
May 13, 2021We should all commend the scientists responsible for the speedy rollout of various Covid vaccines. True, we understate the risks of mass inoculation with an inadequately tested product. But we could easily make a case that the global emergency warrants such risk taking. Yet, as illustrated by its latest conflict with President Biden, the pharmaceutical industry does not consider public health its main priority. I’ll go further: Big Pharma lacks any decency. I’ll admit that I appear to have underestimated …
The Urgency for an Enlightenment 2.0
April 30, 2021When you automate an industry you modernize it; when you automate a life you primitivize it. (Eric Hoffer) It is well known that rationality and science emerged during the Age of Enlightenment. Many indeed attribute human progress over the past few centuries to reason and discovery. Despite a Romantic reaction against some of the worst excesses of the Industrial Revolution, there is little doubt that human reason, empiricism, and science ultimately became the dominant world view. The “defeat” of Romanticism …
A Millennial-Z Moment
April 27, 2021Perusing the Financial Times this morning, I came across three important articles that seemed unrelated. On further reflection, however, I discovered a common thread. All three address future prospects for the Millennial and Z generations, even if two only indirectly. Jointly they suggest, in my analysis, that a Millennial-Z moment may be approaching. Sarah O’Connor’s piece focuses on the economic insecurity faced by many in either the Millennial or Gen-Z cohorts. By itself there is nothing remarkable here, nor even …
The Multitude of Things That Fungi Can Teach Us
April 19, 2021Merlin Sheldrake’s recent book, Entangled Life: How Fungi Make Our Worlds, Change Our Minds, and Shape Our Futures, is astonishing – truly one of a kind. The author is an exceedingly rare case of a scientific specialist with a superb gift for writing. In this gem of a book the reader encounters the multitude of things that fungi can teach us about the world and about ourselves. There is much here that is awe-inspiring to contemplate. Who could ever imagine …
A Debt Jubilee Is Unavoidable
April 11, 2021I am truly sorry not to be teaching my macroeconomics principles class this semester. Debt is invariably an under-remarked topic in such classes, never mind a debt jubilee (or debt forgiveness). Yet everything recently happening both in the markets and politics offers a “real-time” tutorial. So, here I will try to explain why, in my view, a debt jubilee is unavoidable – sooner or later. “Debt” may be an abstract and confusing concept to many. Largely it is because we …
Biden Can Make a Difference
April 3, 2021As I’ve conceded elsewhere, I am not one to exaggerate whatever differences there might be between the U.S. Democratic and Republican parties. I have always viewed the Democrats as “Republican-lite,” since both parties have been beholden to corporate America for many decades. Even the thought of voting for the “lesser evil” last November disgusted me, as I noted in an earlier piece. Yet now I believe that Biden can make a difference. The unprecedented challenges that we face, along with the …
Continued Growth Is Not Good for the Environment
March 31, 2021“Earth provides enough to satisfy every man’s needs, but not every man’s greed.” (Mahatma Gandhi) You might be thinking that this one is a complete no-brainer. How could growth be good for the environment? The larger the economy is, the more material waste and pollution is produced, right? True, but as we will see, it is not the whole story. Other factors intervene that many believe make the argument plausible. In arguing that continued growth is not good for the …
The Social Costs of Social Media
March 28, 2021In economics, “social cost” is really a euphemism for the destructive consequences of capitalism. Milton Friedman famously referred to them as “neighborhood effects,” and today it is more common to call them “market failures” or “externalities.” Regardless of what we label them, they are the secondary or indirect effects of some market transaction or transactions. And because I am convinced of their urgency, today I want to call attention to the social costs of social media and the internet in …