Are Economists Really Clueless about Uncertainty?

Mariano Torras Complexity, General, Methodology/Statistics, Science Leave a Comment

January 24, 2021

I am seriously beginning to think that economists do not understand uncertainty, even what it means. What other conclusion can I draw from responses to my letter to the Financial Times this week? In it, I agree with and applaud a columnist on her jaundiced perspective regarding “expert opinion.” But more to the point, I directly criticize economists’ take on uncertainty by stating: …In my own field, the meaning of “uncertainty” is limited to complete knowledge of all the possible …

True Artificial Intelligence Has Arrived

Mariano Torras Complexity, Future, General, Science Leave a Comment

January 16, 2021

Artificial intelligence (AI) is not my area of expertise, but I suppose that being a generalist gives me license to comment on it. And anyway, the implications of AI could be far reaching for economics – and humanity in general, of course. In a liberating or in a very scary way, depending on which path we follow with it. But that’s for another time. Today I want to focus on the technology itself. Progress that we have made with chess …

More Musings on Generalism

Mariano Torras Complexity, Future, General, History, Methodology/Statistics, Science 1 Comment

January 10, 2021

I recently read Yuval Noah Harari’s Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind. It’s a bit late for a formal review since the book is over five years old. But in case you haven’t read it, the book is fascinating. Harari manages to convey so much historical information in an extraordinarily clear and concise manner. Despite its far-reaching scope, Harari manages to come across as profound and radical. I do not mean radical in the “leftist” or “extreme” sense, rather in …