I like to ask my economics students whether competitive free markets are a good thing. Despite the fact that many of them want to go into business as a career, they mostly agree that competition and free markets are universally desirable. I try to remind them that absence of competition is what most helps businesses stay alive – never mind rake in abnormal profits – but they are not easily persuaded. Further discussion with them reveals a widespread and ingrained …
On Getting “Back to Normal”
August 13, 2020It is quite understandable that after five months of one unprecedented event after another people in the United States are experiencing Covid fatigue and yearning for a return to normal. But what exactly is “normal?” And should we be wishing for a return to it? The question reminds me of a comedian I saw almost exactly four years ago who was discussing the 2016 contest between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. “Clinton or Trump,” he mused, “it’s a little like …
The Great Divergence: The Economy and the Stock Market
July 17, 2020Our economy presently faces by far the greatest collapse in the lifetime of most people alive today. Indeed, long after the Covid-19 scare passes, we are likely to remain mired in a high unemployment trap for an extended period. The U.S. economy has lost over 40 million jobs in the past four months, even if several million have been temporarily recovered as a result of the federal government’s Paycheck Protection Plan. Consumption fell by record amounts in April and May …
Economic Depression and the Liquidity Trap
July 3, 2020I never quite got the liquidity trap when I was in college. Not having grown up during a major war or an economic depression, the concept always seemed kind of abstract. I understood it a bit better when I was in graduate school, probably because by then I had greater general curiosity about economics. But even then, it was not easy to fathom without direct observation or experience. Things change. The past 10-12 years are, arguably, Exhibit A. According to …
What the Unemployment Rate Conceals
June 19, 2020A couple of weeks ago the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported the May unemployment rate at 13.3 percent. In normal times, such a number would be considered alarmingly high. But we are not in normal times. And compared the 14.7 percent rate for the preceding month, many – not the least President Trump – took the announcement as good news. Unfortunately, there are a number of factors underneath this single statistic that should give us pause. First, there are …