The Urgency for an Enlightenment 2.0

Mariano Torras Complexity, Ecological Economics, Economic Theory, Environment/Sustainability, Future, General, History, Macroeconomics, Methodology/Statistics, Microeconomics, Politics, Public policy/Wellbeing, Reflections, Science Leave a Comment

April 30, 2021

When you automate an industry you modernize it; when you automate a life you primitivize it. (Eric Hoffer) It is well known that rationality and science emerged during the Age of Enlightenment. Many indeed attribute human progress over the past few centuries to reason and discovery. Despite a Romantic reaction against some of the worst excesses of the Industrial Revolution, there is little doubt that human reason, empiricism, and science ultimately became the dominant world view. The “defeat” of Romanticism …

Continued Growth Is Not Good for the Environment

Mariano Torras Ecological Economics, Economic Theory, Environment/Sustainability, Future, General, Methodology/Statistics, Politics, Public policy/Wellbeing, Reflections, Science Leave a Comment

March 31, 2021

“Earth provides enough to satisfy every man’s needs, but not every man’s greed.” (Mahatma Gandhi) You might be thinking that this one is a complete no-brainer. How could growth be good for the environment? The larger the economy is, the more material waste and pollution is produced, right? True, but as we will see, it is not the whole story. Other factors intervene that many believe make the argument plausible. In arguing that continued growth is not good for the …

Are We Approaching a Tipping Point?

Mariano Torras Complexity, Environment/Sustainability, Future, General, History, Methodology/Statistics, Science Leave a Comment

March 8, 2021

Texas has been on my mind lately. No, I’m not a Republican, and I’m not crazy about hot weather. That is, in fact, the problem. Texas has been in the recent news, but not because of its heat. Quite the contrary. An unexpected winter storm last month stressed the electric grid in Texas and almost brought it down. Bill Magness, president and chief executive of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), said Texas was “seconds and minutes” from complete …

Are Economists Really Clueless about Uncertainty?

Mariano Torras Complexity, General, Methodology/Statistics, Science Leave a Comment

January 24, 2021

I am seriously beginning to think that economists do not understand uncertainty, even what it means. What other conclusion can I draw from responses to my letter to the Financial Times this week? In it, I agree with and applaud a columnist on her jaundiced perspective regarding “expert opinion.” But more to the point, I directly criticize economists’ take on uncertainty by stating: …In my own field, the meaning of “uncertainty” is limited to complete knowledge of all the possible …

More Musings on Generalism

Mariano Torras Complexity, Future, General, History, Methodology/Statistics, Science 1 Comment

January 10, 2021

I recently read Yuval Noah Harari’s Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind. It’s a bit late for a formal review since the book is over five years old. But in case you haven’t read it, the book is fascinating. Harari manages to convey so much historical information in an extraordinarily clear and concise manner. Despite its far-reaching scope, Harari manages to come across as profound and radical. I do not mean radical in the “leftist” or “extreme” sense, rather in …

GDP Growth: Seriously Flawed but Not Going Anywhere

Mariano Torras Complexity, Ecological Economics, Environment/Sustainability, General, Macroeconomics, Methodology/Statistics, Politics, Public policy/Wellbeing, Reflections Leave a Comment

December 31, 2020

“Where do people earn the Per Capita Income? More than one starving soul would like to know.” (Eduardo Galeano) U.S. GDP plunged in the second quarter of 2020 at an annualized rate of 31.7 percent. From the standpoint of history, the report was shocking (although perhaps not surprising, given the abrupt policy response to the pandemic). Equally shocking (and unsurprising) was the news for the third quarter, which reported an unprecedented growth rate of 33.1 percent. Yet for most people …

Could We Have Too Much Fiscal Policy?

Mariano Torras Economic Theory, Finance, General, Macroeconomics, Methodology/Statistics, Politics, Public policy/Wellbeing Leave a Comment

December 3, 2020

President-elect Biden’s formation of his economic “team” has been dominating the headlines. Unduly, I aver, because there are far more pressing issues than which Wall Street or otherwise pro-business cronies Biden ends up selecting. Most notably, of course, is the matter of another desperately needed stimulus package. Against all odds, it appears that moderate Senate Democrats and Republicans are working together on a compromise bill. Just yesterday the group, led by Senators Collins (R-Maine) and Warner (D-Virginia), proposed a $900 …

Inflation? Really?

Mariano Torras Economic Theory, Finance, Future, General, Macroeconomics, Methodology/Statistics, Politics, Public policy/Wellbeing Leave a Comment

November 25, 2020

Last week my interest was aroused by an article written by Martin Wolf in the Financial Times (November 18th) in which he discusses a recent book by Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan. In the article he provides a number of reasons why we might expect higher – possibly much higher – inflation in the coming years. And an article in today’s Wall Street Journal by David Harrison similarly suggests that, following successful introduction of a Covid-19 vaccine, widespread and pent-up …

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: Why It Should Matter to Us

Mariano Torras Finance, General, History, International/Development, Macroeconomics, Methodology/Statistics, Politics, Public policy/Wellbeing 1 Comment

November 18, 2020

Just two days ago, 15 Asia-Pacific nations agreed to what is arguably the most important trade deal in history. Known as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), it will unite the 10 countries from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) – Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Viet Nam – with Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea to create the largest trade bloc in the world. With its members accounting for about one-third …

The 3rd Quarter GDP Report

Mariano Torras General, Macroeconomics, Methodology/Statistics, Politics, Public policy/Wellbeing 2 Comments

November 1, 2020

On Thursday, the Commerce Department announced that U.S. GDP had grown 7.4 percent in the 3rd quarter of 2020, which amounts to 33.1 percent at an annualized rate. The White House did not hesitate to trumpet the news, calling it the Great American Recovery. To call such an account hyperbole would be an understatement. Not only is it very far from “great,” calling it “a recovery” is also highly questionable (we must, however, concede that it is American). It is …